The link was modeled with Radio Mobile, but I don't believe the atmospheric effects over water are taken in to account with this. I have been looking at other options. In my mind I have two options at the moment, trying two SR71-15s, or a Radwin 2000. If N is mature enough on MT, it is worth a try.Did you just put the link up or did you perform a path analysis beforehand?
Over water links, especially longer ones, normally suffer from multipath and ducting. If you deploy a single pole link, regardless of polarity, you will experience issues at some point unless you have extremely high endpoints relative to the path (in excess of the established 22 deg minimum.)
Carrier grade equipment gets around this by using spatial diversity, which N finally brings to the table. So using a 'real' N card, with at least 2x2, and more importantly, spacing your dishes at least 3m apart vertically, should compensate for multipath. It is important to note that when this compensation occurs, be expecting the throughput to drop as only one stream is being used.
Changing to carrier grade equipment that uses time and spatial coding is another answer.
A few hours after posting my message the signal fluctuations came back. I am going to try dropping the higher end to around the same height as the lower end (40 meters ASL or so) and see if things stabilize. Swapping frequencys from 5.8 to 5.3 or vice versa seems to help the issue. I'm wondering if two links bonded, one at 5.3 and one a 5.8 would make sense.You cannot model effectively over a predominent water link. You are in the lap of the gods.
Previous post hit the nail on the head... Ducting.
Ducting is more common over sea paths, can happen each day...
Hint... Look at smoke stacks if there are any... Does the smoke rise or go horizontal.
I did read that thread, and had considered the same. At he moment, my plan is to upgrade the 29dbi grids to 32dbi parabolics, drop the higher end of the link to the same height as the remote end to minimize ducting losses, and replace the R5H cards with XR5s for a bit more TX gain. These changes, along with shorter cable runs off of the ODU to the antenna adds 10db to my link budget, which will hopefully put me in a good spot. I'll keep you posted. For the past 24 hours the link has been running at 5.8Ghz, H-Pol, and been relatively stable, but without much sun today I don't think the evaporative ducting effects were out in full force.Did you read my post and the solution for long links over water?
http://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=31644